Peace Blog
The views expressed in the blog are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IIP.
Das abgelaufene Jahr war wahrlich kein friedliches. Der zerstörerische Krieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine ging weiter und die Hamas startete mit einem unentschuldbaren und grausamen Angriff gegen Israel einen neuen Krieg bzw. das Wiederaufleben immer wieder aufflammender kriegerischer Auseinandersetzung. Für beide Kriege besteht zu Beginn des Neuen Jahres kaum Aussicht auf ein Ende - jedenfalls auf keine dauerhafte Lösung.
Baku and Yerevan have failed to reach a peace treaty in the wake of the 2020 Second Karabakh War and Azerbaijan’s lighting operation to take over Karabakh on September 19, 2023. This failure is due to two fundamental issues. First, both Yerevan and Baku have been in search of a silver bullet to make peace and resolve all their problems once and for all. Second, they have sought such a silver bullet in different capitals, from Moscow to Washington, from Ankara to Brussels and Paris. Instead, they should accept that either no such silver bullet exists or, if it does, it lies in small, tangible steps, uneasy concessions, and slow and long processes of reconciliation and conflict transformation that require them both to capitalize on their own potential for peace. In this context, the Armenian-Azerbaijani joint statement on prisoner exchanges and other confidence-building measures is a good illustration.
On November 9th, 2023, the EU Commission presented its yearly enlargement report. The beginning of its communication states: “Today, the Western Balkans, Türkiye, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have a historic window of opportunity to strongly bind their future to the European Union.” The Commission also cited the conclusions of the European Council at its meeting in Granada, at which “EU leaders reconfirmed enlargement as a geo-strategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity.“
After Hamas’ brutal attack against Israel, which resulted in many dead and wounded civilians, the most important and urgent task of today is ending Hamas’ rule of Gaza, where the terrorist organization holds the Palestinian population hostage. But the question that must be answered next – if not in parallel to the military action – is how to prevent the next war between Israel and either Hamas or whoever may succeed it. Significantly, this can only be achieved if the basic rights of all people living in Israel and Palestine are secure. This should be obvious to all observers, but unfortunately many simply defend Israel in its war against Hamas without considering how future aggression from Gaza can be avoided.
On October 29th one hundred years ago, the Turkish Republic was founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk was a strong military leader, a reformer and modernizer, and a staunch supporter of women’s rights – but he was not a real democrat. His followers – especially within Turkey’s armed forces – repeatedly interrupted the country’s democratic development over the century since its establishment. While critics today bemoan Turkish Present President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s undermining of democracy, one must recognize that he has many predecessors among the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the generals of the Turkish Army.
In der letzten Zeit wurde die Weltöffentlichkeit von furchtbaren Entwicklungen überrascht, obwohl sie absehbar waren. Immer wieder glauben wir Konflikte einfrieren zu können, um sie einer späteren Lösung zuzuführen. Allerdings kaum sind sie eingefroren wird auf Lösungsanstrengungen vergessen oder sie werden nur halbherzig verfolgt. Und dann wundern sich Politiker*innen und Medien, dass die Konflikte von damals wieder ausbrechen, die Wunden neuerlich aufbrechen. Weder die Rückeroberung von Nagorno Karabach, noch die jüngst aufflammenden Konflikte im Kosovo, noch die abscheulichen Attacken der Hamas konnten ernst zu nehmende politische Beobachter überraschen. Nur das Ausmaß der neuerlich aufgebrochenen Konflikte konnte überraschen.
In the framework of the recent Belgrade Security Conference, I participated in the opening panel titled „Ukraine and the Allies: Keeping the Firm Rock Unity and Solidarity.“ In my remarks, I aimed to broaden the scope of the panel and proposed a set of principles for a common European future, with special reference to the issue of security. I have attempted to summarize and distil my core ideas and arguments in the following.
To the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who was reelected for his third presidential term this May under the campaign slogan ‘The Century of Turkey’ – it seems that the time has come to realize his country’s geopolitical aspirations of becoming a regional power. Auspiciously, recent geopolitical shifts and global instability have created multiple opportunities for Turkey to expand its influence across its neighborhood. The South Caucasus is one such region where Turkey has gained ample room to realize this ambition in recent years, not least due to Russia’s diminishing influence in the region after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Azerbaijan’s takeover of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh this September was supported by Turkey, as its strongest ally. However, any further military escalation in the region would not be in Ankara’s interest.
Viele sehnen sich nach der nach 1945 erreichten Weltordnung. Es gab den Westen, den Osten und dann noch einige blockfreie Länder, die versuchten sich dazwischen zu arrangieren. Im Wesentlichen respektierte der einzelne Block die Grenzen des jeweilig anderen Blocks und die dazwischen situierten Länder versuchten - soweit sie schon unabhängig waren - von beiden Blöcken Vorteile zu erzielen. Nun, so einfach und friedlich war die Welt keineswegs. Denken wir an die Kriege im Rahmen der De-Kolonialisierung wie im Kongo und in Algerien und an den Korea- und den Vietnamkrieg. Aber immerhin die globalen Verhältnisse waren relativ übersichtlich und stabil.
